PRINCE DAPO ABIODUN AND THE CHANCE TO BREAK OGUN STATE SUCCESSION JINX     

By OLUBORI AKINLEYE

As the clock ticks steadily on the administration of Dapo Abiodun, the conversation in Ogun State is no longer just about governance, it is about legacy.And in Ogun, legacy is defined by one elusive achievement: producing a successor.

For decades, Ogun State has defied the traditional logic of incumbency. Sitting governors wield enormous influence, yet repeatedly fail at the most consequential political task of transferring power to a preferred successor. From Otunba Gbenga Daniel in 2011 to Senator Ibikunle Amosun in 2019, the story has been the same, strong leaders, failed succession plans.

But there are growing signs that Abiodun may be on course to do what his predecessors could not—break the jinx and reshape Ogun’s political history.

Unlike the combative, centralised approaches that defined previous administrations,Dapo Abiodun has, so far, cultivated a more measured and inclusive political style. This difference may prove calculative. Where others consolidated power narrowly, Abiodun appears to be distributing influence more within government, across party structures, and among key stakeholders.

One of the critical failings of both Daniel and Amosun was the tendency toward political imposition. Their succession strategies were perceived rightly or wrongly as top-down projects, triggering resistance from within their own camps. Ogun’s political class has consistently pushed back against such moves, often aligning in unexpected ways to block them.

Dapo Abiodun, however, seems to understand the terrain better. Rather than rushing to ANOINT a successor, he has maintained what I called STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY while strengthening party cohesion within the APC. This has helped to reduce open factional warfare, historically the Achilles’ heel of succession plans in the state.

Equally significant is his relationship with the grassroots. Ogun voters have shown a strong preference for candidates with independent appeal, not just those backed by power brokers. By focusing on governance and broad-based engagement, Abiodun is indirectly shaping the conditions for a successor who can win both elite and popular support.

Then there is the national dimension. Political transitions in Nigeria are rarely insulated from federal influence. Lessons from 2019 remain fresh, when misalignment at the top contributed to a dramatic political upset. Abiodun’s more conciliatory posture toward APC National leadership suggests a deliberate effort to avoid that pitfall.

Taken together, these factors point to something Ogun has not seen in a long time: a governor who is not just preparing to leave office, but carefully positioning the ground for continuity.

This does not mean the path is guaranteed.

Ogun politics remains unpredictable, and the forces that have historically disrupted succession, ambition, rivalry, and shifting alliances—are already stirring beneath the surface. The closer the election cycle comes, the more intense these pressures will become.

Yet, if current trends hold, Abiodun stands closer than any governor before him to achieving what has long seemed impossible.

Breaking Ogun’s succession jinx would not just be a PERSONAL VICTORY; it would mark a TURNING POINT in Ogun State political evolution. It would demonstrate that continuity, when built on inclusion and legitimacy rather than coercion, is indeed possible.

For now, the signs are promising,and if Dapo Abiodun stays this course, balancing influence with restraint, power with consensus, he may well do more than choose a successor.

He may BREAK the JINX and makes history.

Olubori Akinleye writes from Sunwa Ward, Yewa North